50 Foot Rise in Global Sea Level Possible by 2300
Author: Rutgers University(i) : Contact: rutgers.edu
Published: 2018-10-07 : (Rev. 2018-10-10)
Synopsis and Key Points:
Global average sea-level could rise by nearly 8 feet by 2100 and 50 feet by 2300 if greenhouse gas emissions remain high.
Characterizing what's known and what's uncertain is key to managing coastal risk...
Global average sea-level could rise by nearly 8 feet by 2100 and 50 feet by 2300 if greenhouse gas emissions remain high and humanity proves unlucky, according to a review of sea-level change and projections by Rutgers and other scientists.
Since the start of the century, global average sea-level has risen by about 0.2 feet.
Under moderate emissions, central estimates of global average sea-level from different analyses range from 1.4 to 2.8 more feet by 2100, 2.8 to 5.4 more feet by 2150 and 6 to 14 feet by 2300, according to the study, published in Annual Review of Environment and Resources.
And with 11 percent of the world's 7.6 billion people living in areas less than 33 feet above sea level, rising seas pose a major risk to coastal populations, economies, infrastructure and ecosystems around the world, the study says.
Sea-level rise varies over location and time, and scientists have developed a range of methods to reconstruct past changes and project future ones. But despite the differing approaches, a clear story is emerging regarding the coming decades:
- From 2000 to 2050, global average sea-level will most likely rise about 6 to 10 inches, but is extremely unlikely to rise by more than 18 inches.
- Beyond 2050, projections are more sensitive to changes in greenhouse gas emissions and to the approaches for projecting sea-level change.
"There's much that's known about past and future sea-level change, and much that is uncertain. But uncertainty isn't a reason to ignore the challenge," said study co-author Robert E. Kopp, a professor in the Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences at Rutgers University-New Brunswick and director of Rutgers' Institute of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences.
Parts of New Jersey and New York with 8 feet of sea-level rise. An almost 8-foot rise is possible by 2100 under a worst-case scenario, according to projections. The light-blue areas show the extent of permanent flooding. The bright green areas are low-lying - Image Credit: NOAA Sea Level Rise Viewer.
"Carefully characterizing what's known and what's uncertain is crucial to managing the risks sea-level rise poses to coasts around the world."
Scientists used case studies from Atlantic City, New Jersey, and from Singapore to discuss how current methods for reconstructing past sea-level change can constrain future global and local projections.
They also discussed approaches for using scientific sea-level projections and how accurate projections can lead to new sea-level research questions.
A large portion of sea-level rise in the 20th century, including most of the global rise since 1975, is tied to human-caused global warming, the study says.
Kopp led the review with Benjamin P. Horton, a former Rutgers professor now at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore.
Co-authors include Andra J. Garner, an assistant research professor in Rutgers' Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, and other scientists at Boston College and Nanyang Technological University.
(i)Source/Reference: Rutgers University. Disabled World makes no warranties or representations in connection therewith. Content may have been edited for style, clarity or length.
- 1 - Hope for Future of Ocean Governance - Commonwealth Blue Charter : Commonwealth Secretariat (2019/06/07)
- 2 - 50 Foot Rise in Global Sea Level Possible by 2300 : Rutgers University (2018/10/07)
- 3 - Health Impacts from Projected Climate Changes : NOAA Headquarters (2011/02/20)
- 4 - Looming Conflicts Over Water Sources : UN University INWEH (2015/02/24)
- 5 - El Nino May Be Spreading Diseases to New Places : University of Bath (2016/03/04)
- 6 - Climate Change May Increase ER Visits for Allergy Related Asthma : The American Geophysical Union (2017/05/10)
- 7 - Climate Change: Fate of the World in Our Hands : United Nations (2018/10/01)
• Disabled World is strictly a news and information website provided for general informational purpose only and does not constitute medical advice. Materials presented are in no way meant to be a substitute for professional medical care by a qualified practitioner, nor should they be construed as such. Any 3rd party offering or advertising on disabled-world.com does not constitute endorsement by Disabled World.
• Please report outdated or inaccurate information to us.