Europe 2024 Heatwave Deaths Reach Over 62,700 in Study

Author: Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal)
Published: 22 Sep 2025 - Updated: 31 Aug 2026
Publication Details: Peer-Reviewed | Simulation, Modelling

Table of Contents:
Synopsis - Definition - Overview - FAQs - Insights, Updates - Related Content

Synopsis

This research, published in the peer-reviewed journal Nature Medicine, represents authoritative scientific analysis from the Barcelona Institute for Global Health examining the devastating health impacts of Europe's record-breaking 2024 summer temperatures. The study's authority stems from its rigorous methodology using daily mortality records across 654 regions in 32 European countries, combined with epidemiological modeling that the researchers refined to provide more accurate estimates than previous analyses.

This comprehensive data reveals that heat-related deaths disproportionately affected vulnerable populations, with women experiencing 46.7% higher mortality than men and individuals over 75 facing mortality rates 323% higher than younger age groups. For people with disabilities, seniors, and those with chronic health conditions, this research provides crucial evidence for understanding climate-related health risks and supports the urgent need for enhanced early warning systems and targeted adaptation strategies that could save thousands of lives in future extreme heat events.*

At a Glance

• 1 - The 2024 total was 8.1% lower than the roughly 67,900 deaths estimated for summer 2022. Cooler regional conditions in parts of southern Europe helped explain the decline.
• 2 - Italy recorded the highest death toll at more than 19,000, followed by Spain with over 6,700. Germany, Greece, and Romania rounded out the five hardest-hit nations.
• 3 - Greece and Bulgaria posted the highest mortality rates at 574 and 530 deaths per million people. These figures far exceeded any rate recorded in the two prior summers.
• 4 - The Forecaster Health tool converts weather forecasts into regional heat-health alerts at least one week ahead. In southern Europe it stayed reliable even beyond the seven-day window, offering a chance to protect the most vulnerable.

Topic Definition

Heat-Related Mortality

Heat-related mortality refers to deaths that occur because the human body cannot cope with sustained or extreme high temperatures, either directly through conditions such as heatstroke or indirectly when heat worsens existing cardiovascular, respiratory, or other chronic illnesses. Researchers rarely count these deaths one by one, since heat is often an underlying trigger rather than the recorded cause. Instead, they use epidemiological models that compare observed daily deaths against expected baselines for a given temperature, allowing them to estimate how many deaths a heat event added over what would normally occur. The burden falls unevenly, hitting older adults, women, people with disabilities, and those with pre-existing health conditions hardest, and it tends to concentrate in regions where high temperatures coincide with vulnerable populations, such as the Mediterranean basin and southeastern Europe.

Overview

Summer 2024 Heatwaves Linked to Over 62,700 Deaths Across Europe

Over 62,700 deaths associated with record-breaking heat during the summer of 2024 in Europe.

A study led by ISGlobal and published in Nature Medicine estimates that over 181,000 deaths were related to heat during the summers of 2022, 2023, and 2024 Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal)

The year 2024 broke several temperature records: it was the hottest ever recorded, and its summer was also the warmest to date. A study led by the Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal), a center supported by the "la Caixa" Foundation, has estimated that 62,775 heat-related deaths occurred in Europe between 1 June and 30 September of that year. These mortality figures are 23.6% higher than the approximately 50,800 estimated for the summer of 2023, and 8.1% lower than the nearly 67,900 estimated for the summer of 2022. These results have been published in Nature Medicine.

Italy and Spain, the Countries with Highest Number of Deaths

The study focused on 654 regions in 32 European countries. The country with the highest number of heat-related deaths was Italy, with more than 19,000 estimated deaths in the summer of 2024. In the previous summers of 2023 and 2022, Italy was also the country with the highest heat-related mortality, with an estimated 13,800 and 18,800 deaths, respectively.

The country with the second highest estimated mortality in the summer of 2024 was Spain, with more than 6,700 deaths, followed by Germany (around 6,300), Greece (around 6,000) and Romania (more than 4,900). In the case of Spain, estimated deaths in 2024 were almost half those for 2022, due to lower summer temperatures than in the previous two years. In the case of Spain, estimated deaths in 2024 were almost half those for 2022, due to lower summer temperatures than in the previous two years.

Top European countries with Highest Estimated Number of Deaths

Greece and Bulgaria, Countries with Highest Mortality Rates

In terms of mortality incidence, the countries with the highest heat-related death rates for the same period were Greece (574 estimated deaths per million people), Bulgaria (530 deaths per million) and Serbia (379 deaths per million). These rates were significantly higher than those estimated for the two previous summers of the study, the highest of which was 373 deaths per million in Greece during 2023.

Overall, 15 of the 32 assessed countries experienced their highest heat-related mortality burden and rates during the summer of 2024.

Top 10 European Countries with Highest Estimated Heat-related Mortality Rates

Differences by Sex and Age

The number of heat-related deaths was higher among women and older people during the three summers studied (2022, 2023 and 2024). Specifically, it is estimated that in the summer of 2024, the number of heat-related deaths among women was 46.7% higher than among men. In people over 75, the estimated mortality rate was 323% higher than in all other age groups.

Most Vulnerable Regions

"Although the summer of 2024 was the hottest on record according to Copernicus, in the specific regions of our study, the summers of 2022 and 2023 were actually hotter. However, these regional differences in average temperature are not fully reflected in mortality, as the estimated deaths for 2024 were higher than those estimated for the summer of 2023 and only slightly lower than those for 2022. This is because in 2022 and 2024, the highest temperatures occurred in south-western and south-eastern Europe, respectively, both areas that are highly vulnerable to heat," explains Tomáš Janoš, ISGlobal and Recetox researcher and first author of the study.

"Europe is the continent that is warming most quickly, at twice the global average. And within Europe, the Mediterranean basin and south-eastern regions are emerging as major climate change hotspots, facing the greatest impacts on health and with a substantial rise in heat-related mortality projected during the 21st century", adds Janoš.

Forecaster Health, an Effective and Reliable Tool for Emergency Heat Alerts

In total, the study suggests that there were more than 181,000 heat-related deaths in Europe during the three summers studied, two-thirds of which occurred in southern Europe. According to Joan Ballester Claramunt, principal investigator of the European Research Council (ERC) EARLY-ADAPT project, and senior author of the study, the magnitude of these figures highlights the need to "strengthen adaptation strategies, including the development and implementation of a new generation of continent-wide, impact-based heat-health early warning systems".

For this reason, part of the study was devoted to evaluating Forecaster health, a tool created within the ERC Proof-of-Concept Grants HHS-EWS and FORECAST-AIR, which uses epidemiological models to transform weather forecasts into daily operational heat-health alerts by region and for specific population groups. The analysis shows that the tool is highly reliable in issuing heat-health alerts at least one week in advance when conditions point to an exceptional mortality risk.

"In southern Europe, however, the early warning system continued to show relatively high reliability even beyond this seven-day horizon, which considering that this is the area with the highest heat-related mortality on the continent, represents an unexplored opportunity to save lives among the most vulnerable populations", says Joan Ballester Claramunt.

Methodology

The team used daily regional temperature observations and mortality records for the period 2015-2019 to fit the epidemiological models. Once fitted, these were combined with daily temperature observations and forecasts and with weekly mortality series for the years 2022 to 2024 to calculate heat-related mortality in these three recent summers.

Re-estimation of heat-related mortality in the summers of 2023 and 2022

This study follows on from previous studies on estimated mortality for the summers of 2023 and 2022, respectively. After finding that the use of weekly mortality records to fit epidemiological models led to an underestimation of heat-related mortality of between 5% and 20%, the team this time used daily mortality series from the database of the EARLY-ADAPT project to fit the epidemiological models.

Using this improved methodology, the data for the summers of 2022 and 2023 were reprocessed, resulting in higher mortality estimates than in previous years' studies, which the researchers consider to be more accurate.

Reference

Tomáš Janoš, Marcos Quijal-Zamorano, Natalia Shartova, Elisa Gallo, Raúl Fernando Méndez Turrubiates, Nadia Denisse Beltrán Barrón, Fabien Peyrusse, Joan Ballester. Heat-related mortality in Europe during 2024 and health emergency forecasting to reduce preventable deaths. Nature Medicine, September 2025.

About ISGlobal

The Barcelona Institute for Global Health, ISGlobal, is the fruit of an innovative alliance between the "la Caixa" Foundation and academic and government institutions to contribute to the efforts undertaken by the international community to address the challenges in global health. ISGlobal is a consolidated hub of excellence in research that has grown out of work first started in the world of health care by the Hospital Clínic and the Hospital del Mar and in the academic sphere by the University of Barcelona and Pompeu Fabra University. Its working model is based on the generation of scientific knowledge through Research Programs and Groups, and its translation through the areas of Training and Analysis and Global Development. ISGlobal has been named a Severo Ochoa Centre of Excellence and is a member of the CERCA system of the Generalitat de Catalunya.

Frequently Asked Questions

NOTE: Researched FAQs by Disabled World (DW)

What is heatstroke and how does it differ from heat exhaustion

Heatstroke is a life-threatening condition where body temperature rises above 40 degrees Celsius and the body loses its ability to cool itself, often causing confusion or loss of consciousness. Heat exhaustion is a milder stage marked by heavy sweating, weakness, and dizziness that can progress to heatstroke if not treated.

Who is most at risk during a heatwave

Older adults, infants, pregnant people, those with chronic heart or lung conditions, and people with disabilities face the greatest risk. Outdoor workers, athletes, and people without access to cooling or air conditioning are also highly vulnerable.

How can I keep my home cool without air conditioning

Close blinds and curtains during the day, open windows at night when air is cooler, and use fans to move air across a bowl of ice. Limiting the use of heat-generating appliances and spending time in the lowest level of the home also helps.

What are the early warning signs of heat illness

Early signs include heavy sweating, muscle cramps, headache, nausea, dizziness, and a rapid pulse. If sweating stops, the skin becomes hot and dry, or confusion sets in, the situation has become a medical emergency.

How much water should I drink during extreme heat

Most adults should drink water regularly throughout the day rather than waiting until thirsty, often around two to three liters during hot weather. People with kidney or heart conditions should follow the fluid limits advised by their doctor.

Why is Europe warming faster than the global average

Europe is warming at roughly twice the global rate due to its geographic position, reduced reflective snow and ice cover, and shifts in atmospheric circulation. The Mediterranean and southeastern regions are emerging as particular climate hotspots.

What is a heat-health early warning system

It is a public health tool that uses weather forecasts and health data to predict dangerous heat conditions and alert authorities and the public in advance. These systems allow hospitals, care services, and communities to prepare protective measures before a heatwave arrives.

How can communities protect vulnerable people during heatwaves

Communities can open cooling centers, run check-in programs for isolated seniors and disabled residents, and expand shaded green spaces in urban areas. Coordinated public health messaging and improved urban planning further reduce preventable deaths.

Insights, Analysis, and Developments

Editorial Note: The mounting toll of heat-related deaths across Europe serves as a stark reminder that climate change is not a distant threat but a present-day health emergency demanding immediate action. While technological solutions like the Forecaster Health early warning system offer hope for protecting vulnerable populations, the broader challenge requires coordinated public health policies, improved urban planning, and robust social support systems that ensure no community is left defenseless against the increasing frequency and intensity of deadly heat waves.*

Attribution/Source(s): This peer reviewed publication was selected for publishing by the editors of Disabled World (DW) due to its relevance to the disability community. Originally authored by Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal) and published on 22 Sep 2025, this content may have been edited for style, clarity, or brevity.

* Editorial additions by Ian C. Langtree.