Childhood Weight Recall Helps Predict Obesity Death Risk
Author: European Association for the Study of Obesity
Published: 13 May 2024 - Updated: 4 Nov 2026
Publication Type: Reports & Proceedings
Table of Contents:
Synopsis - Definition - Overview - FAQs - Insights, Updates - Related Content
Synopsis
This research, presented at the European Congress on Obesity in Venice in May 2024 by Dr. William Johnson of Loughborough University and colleagues, used data from nearly 434,000 adults aged 40 to 69 in the UK Biobank study. Participants were asked whether they had been thinner, about average or plumper than other children at age 10, and were followed for death, heart disease and cancer. Adult obesity raised the risk of death by 15 percent overall, but the added risk was greatest for people who recalled being thinner than average as children, at 63 percent for men and 60 percent for women compared with normal-weight adults. The findings suggest that one simple question about childhood size could help doctors identify which adults with obesity face the highest risk, useful for primary care, patients and public health planners.*
At a Glance
- 1 - About a third of participants recalled being thinner than average at age 10.
- 2 - Being overweight but not obese as an adult showed no significant link to higher death risk.
- 3 - Over follow-up, 8 percent of the cohort died and 35 percent developed cardiovascular disease.
- 4 - Links between childhood size and obesity-related cancers were much weaker and mostly not statistically significant.
Topic Definition
- All-Cause Mortality
All-cause mortality is the rate of death from any cause in a group of people over a set period of time, regardless of whether the deaths result from heart disease, cancer, accidents or other conditions. Researchers use it as a broad measure of how a risk factor, such as obesity or smoking, affects overall survival, often expressed as a percentage increase or a hazard ratio compared with a reference group.
Overview
UK Biobank study shows that all-cause mortality risk is highest for those who were slim/underweight in childhood before living with obesity as adults. Being asked whether you considered yourself a normal weight, plumper or thinner as a child when attending a doctor's appointment as an adult might appear like a very strange question to ask, but new research presented at the 2024 European Congress on Obesity in Venice, Italy (May 12-15) suggests that such questions can help identify increased mortality risk in adults living with obesity. The study is by Dr William Johnson, an epidemiology expert based at Loughborough University, UK, and colleagues.
Obesity in Adulthood and Childhood is a Major Public Health Concern
Risk stratification for related diseases might be possible by asking adults simple questions but evidence is lacking to support such a clinical recommendation because most studies do not explicitly test for effect modification of the association of adulthood obesity with outcomes by child weight status. The aim of this study was to evaluate whether the associations of adulthood overweight and obesity with mortality and incident disease differ according to self-reported child body weight.
The sample comprised 191,181 men and 242,806 women aged 40-69 years at baseline in the UK Biobank prospective cohort study between 2006-10. The outcomes were all-cause mortality and incident cardiovascular disease (CVD), obesity-related cancer, and breast cancer. The authors measured BMI at baseline (categorized as normal weight, overweight, or living with obesity) and self-reported perceived body weight at age 10 years (about average, thinner, plumper). Computer models were developed, with adjustment for age, ethnicity, relative age voice break (males) or age at beginning periods (females), and comparative height at age 10 years.
The actual question asked to adults living with obesity was:
"When you were 10 years old, compared to average, would you describe yourself as: thinner, about average, or plumper?"
They were asked this as part of their recruitment into the UK Biobank project between 2006-10. Around half (51%) reported being normal weight, while a third (33%) reported being thinner, and one in six (16%) reported being plumper.
Participants were followed up until an event or: 19 December 2022 for all-cause mortality, 1 September 2023 for incident CVD, and 15 March 2022 for incident obesity-related cancer and breast cancer. Across the recruited cohort during follow-up 8% died, 35% developed CVD, and 2% of the whole cohort (men and women) developed obesity related cancer - including cancers of the colon, uterus, esophagus, gallbladder, stomach, kidney, pancreas, rectum, thyroid, brain lining (meningioma) and also multiple myeloma. And 5% of women developed breast cancer.
In both sexes, living with obesity in adulthood (versus normal weight) was associated with a 15% increased risk of all-cause mortality (death from any cause), whereas living with overweight (versus normal weight) showed no statistically significant relationship.
Adult Males
For adult men who reported having a normal weight at 10 years old, living with obesity was associated with a 28% (1.28 times) increased risk of all-cause mortality compared to adult men with normal weight. For men reporting being thinner at age 10, living with obesity as an adult was associated with a 63% (1.63 times) increased risk of all-cause mortality compared to men with normal weight. And for men reporting being 'plumper' at age 10, there was a 45% (1.45 times) increased risk of all-cause mortality for those living with obesity as adults compared to those living with normal weight.
Thus, comparing risk between groups, for adult men living with obesity, compared with those reporting normal weight as children, reporting being plumper at age 10 years was associated with a 13% increased risk of all-cause mortality (1.45 compared to 1.28) (borderline statistical significance), and reporting being thinner as a child was associated with a 28% increased risk of all-cause mortality. (1.63 compared to 1.28) (statistically significant).
Adult Women
For adult women who reported having a normal weight at 10 years old, living with obesity was associated with a 38% (1.38 times) increased risk of all-cause mortality compared to adult women living with normal weight. For women reporting being thinner at age 10, living with obesity was associated with a 60% (1.6 times) increased risk of all-cause mortality compared with women of normal weight. And for women reporting being plumper at age 10, there was a 32% (1.32 times) increased risk of all-cause mortality for those living with obesity as adults compared to those living with normal weight.
And comparing risk between groups for adult women living with obesity, compared with those reporting normal weight as children, reporting being plumper at age 10 years was not associated with an increased risk of all-cause mortality (1.38 similar to 1.32), whereas reporting being thinner as a child was associated with a 16% increased risk of all-cause mortality (1.60 versus 1.38) (statistically significant).
For cardiovascular disease, increased risks were seen for adult men and women living with obesity compared with those living with normal weight, whatever they reported as 10-year-old children, but differences between them were smaller or not statistically significant. For obesity-related cancers, associations were much weaker and mostly not statistically significant.
The Authors Conclude
"Adulthood overweight and obesity may confer greater risks for all-cause mortality and incident CVD among individuals who perceive themselves to have been a thinner or plumper than average child. Asking adult patients whether they were about average, thinner, or plumper as a child may help with risk stratification for some, but not all, diseases."
"Of course, regardless of your perceived weight status as a child, it is no surprise that our data show living with obesity as an adult is associated with an increased risk of death and various diseases."
Frequently Asked Questions
NOTE: Researched FAQs by Disabled World (DW)
What is the UK Biobank?
UK Biobank is a large research database holding health, genetic and lifestyle information from about half a million UK volunteers recruited between 2006 and 2010, used by scientists worldwide.
Why might thin children face higher risks if they develop obesity later?
Researchers think rapid weight gain after a lean childhood may lead to more fat around internal organs and greater metabolic strain, but the exact reasons are not yet known.
Is BMI a good measure of health risk?
BMI is a simple screening tool, but it does not show where fat is stored or how much is muscle. Waist size and other tests can add useful information.
What is a hazard ratio?
A hazard ratio compares how often an event, such as death, happens in one group compared with another over time. A ratio of 1.28 means a 28 percent higher risk.
How reliable is recalling body size from childhood?
Recall is imperfect, but studies show that adults can usually rank their childhood size as thinner, average or plumper with reasonable accuracy.
Can losing weight reduce the risks linked to adult obesity?
Yes, losing even 5 to 10 percent of body weight can lower blood pressure, blood sugar and cholesterol, which helps reduce the risk of heart disease and diabetes.
Does childhood obesity always continue into adulthood?
Not always, but children with obesity are more likely to have obesity as adults. Healthy eating, activity and sleep habits in childhood can help.
Are conference abstracts the same as published studies?
No, conference abstracts are short summaries that have had limited review. Full results are usually checked further when published in a peer-reviewed journal.
Insights, Analysis, and Developments
Editorial Note: Weight history is rarely part of a routine checkup, yet this study suggests that how a person grew may change what adult obesity means for their health. One possible explanation is that people who were thin as children and gained weight later may store more fat around the organs, which is more harmful than fat elsewhere, though the study could not test this. The results come from a conference abstract and rely on adults remembering their size at age 10, so they need confirmation in peer-reviewed work before changing practice. For now, the message for patients is unchanged: obesity in adulthood carries real risks whatever a person weighed as a child, and support for weight, blood pressure and activity is worthwhile at any age.*
Attribution/Source(s): This quality-reviewed publication was selected for publishing by the editors of Disabled World (DW) due to its relevance to the disability community. Originally issued as a press release by European Association for the Study of Obesity and published on 13 May 2024. Last updated on 4 Nov 2026. This content may have been edited for style, clarity, or brevity.
* Editorial additions by Ian C. Langtree.