2026 Social Security COLA: What Retirees Should Expect
Ian C. Langtree - Writer/Editor for Disabled World (DW)
Published: 2025/10/14
Publication Type: Informative
Category Topic: U.S. Social Security - Academic Publications
Page Content: Synopsis - Introduction - Main - Insights, Updates
Synopsis: After two years of cooling inflation, the Social Security cost-of-living adjustment for 2026 is shaping up to be modest but steady. Early projections point to an increase of about 2.7%, signaling a return to normalcy after the volatility of recent years. While not a dramatic boost, it reflects an economy finding balance — where prices are still inching higher, but no longer at the breakneck pace that rattled retirees' budgets. The 2026 COLA won't make headlines for its size, but for many Americans, it will stand as a quiet marker of stability in uncertain times - Disabled World (DW).
Introduction
For the 70 million Americans who depend on Social Security, October is shaping up to be a month of anticipation. The Social Security Administration is set to announce the 2026 cost-of-living adjustment on October 24, following the Bureau of Labor Statistics' release of September's inflation data.
Main Content
The COLA is the annual increase in Social Security and SSI benefits designed to account for inflation. It's based on the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W). The way it's calculated is relatively mechanical: the Social Security Administration compares the average CPI-W for July, August, and September of the current year with the same three months in the prior year. If the index has increased, benefits go up by that percentage. The official COLA is typically announced in mid-October each year.
Because only three months of data (Q3) are used in the comparison, inflation trends in July-September are especially important, and revisions or surprises in those months can shift the final figure.
The most recent projections paint a picture of modest growth.
- The Senior Citizens League, a nonprofit advocacy organization that has been tracking these numbers closely, maintains its forecast of a 2.7% increase for 2026. If this holds true, it would represent a slight uptick from the 2.5% adjustment recipients saw in 2025.
- Independent policy analyst Mary Johnson offers a marginally higher estimate, predicting a 2.8% COLA that would translate to roughly $56 more per month for the average beneficiary. While these percentages might seem small on paper, for millions of retirees living on fixed incomes, every dollar counts.
- Earlier in the year, TSCL's predictions were more conservative - for instance, in April they estimated 2.4% for the year.
- Some estimates are more modest, centered around 2.5% to 2.6%, depending on inflation assumptions for late summer and early fall.
- The Social Security Trustees' intermediate assumptions suggest a range that is broadly consistent with those estimates - generally "somewhere between 2.4% and 3.0%" based on current data.
Putting these together, a consensus "best guess" for 2026 is a COLA in the 2.6% to 2.8% range, with many leaning toward 2.7%.
If the 2.7% figure holds, for a typical retired worker currently receiving around $2,008 in monthly benefits (2025 levels), that would mean an increase of about $54 per month.
Understanding the Numbers
The 2.7% figure has remained remarkably stable throughout the year. Back in January, the Senior Citizens League initially projected just 2.1%, but as inflation data rolled in month after month, that estimate gradually climbed to its current level by September. This upward revision reflects the persistent, if moderate, inflationary pressures that continue to affect everyday costs.
What makes the 2026 adjustment particularly noteworthy isn't just the single-year percentage-it's what happens when you zoom out. If the 2.7% prediction proves accurate, the five-year average COLA from 2022 through 2026 would reach 4.6%, marking the highest such average since 1985. That's a reflection of the significant inflationary period we've all lived through in recent years.
The best estimates today suggest that the 2026 COLA will be in the ballpark of 2.6% to 2.8%, with 2.7% as a commonly cited central projection. That would represent a modest increase in benefits compared to 2025's 2.5% bump.
However, several caveats apply: the final three months' inflation will matter a lot, and for many beneficiaries (especially those paying Medicare premiums), the net benefit may be much smaller once deductions are accounted for.
Things That Could Push COLA Higher or Lower
While 2.7% is the working assumption now, several factors could shift the final number:
Late summer / early fall inflation surprises: Because only July-September data count, a strong inflation spike in those months could boost the COLA beyond current projections, or a cooler-than-expected result could trim it.
Volatility in key components: Shelter, energy, medical costs - these tend to be volatile. A sharp run-up in any of them (especially medical or rent) could feed through into CPI-W in those three months.
Revisions / methodological quirks: CPI data are sometimes revised, or methodological changes might affect final numbers. Also, because the COLA is locked to that small window, it can sometimes "miss" inflation trends before or after the window.
Offsetting benefit deductions (especially Medicare Part B): Even if the COLA is "good," beneficiaries aged 65+ often face increases in Medicare Part B premiums, which are deducted from Social Security checks. Some analysts warn that a premium hike could consume a substantial portion of the COLA gain. For example, some estimates suggest the Part B premium could rise from $185 (2025 level) to $206.50 in 2026, an increase of 11.6%, which could erode much of the boost. One article put it this way: "the Part B increase will consume almost 40% of the monthly COLA increase."
Policy changes or legislation: Although unlikely in the very near term, changes in how COLA is computed (for example, switching to an index that better reflects older adults' spending, or changing CPI weightings) could alter future COLAs. (No such change is yet in effect for 2026.)
The Bigger Picture
Of course, a higher COLA isn't necessarily cause for celebration. These adjustments exist precisely because the cost of living has gone up. When the COLA rises, it's usually because prices for groceries, healthcare, housing, and other essentials have increased. The adjustment is meant to help beneficiaries keep pace, not get ahead.
The calculation itself is tied to the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, specifically comparing the third quarter of one year to the third quarter of the previous year. September's data, which will be released on October 24, completes that picture for 2026.
It's worth noting that this process has become something of an annual ritual. Since the mid-1970s, Social Security benefits have been adjusted each January to reflect changes in the cost of living. The system is designed to provide predictability and protection against inflation's erosive effects on purchasing power.
Looking Ahead
For now, retirees and advocates will continue watching and waiting for the official announcement. The 2.7% to 2.8% range seems to be where most experts have landed, barring any surprises in the final inflation data. Come January 2026, those new benefit amounts will begin appearing in monthly checks, offering at least some buffer against the ongoing reality of rising prices.
Whether you're already collecting benefits or planning for retirement, the COLA serves as a reminder that Social Security isn't a static program. It adjusts, however imperfectly, to the economic realities of the time. And for 2026, that reality appears to be one of continued, modest inflation requiring a continued, modest response.
Sources: The Senior Citizens League projections (September 2025), independent analyst Mary Johnson via CNBC, Bureau of Labor Statistics announcement, Social Security Administration
Insights, Analysis, and Developments
Editorial Note: There's a peculiar theater to the annual COLA announcement. Advocacy groups issue projections, retirees hold their breath, and policymakers talk about sustainability while millions of Americans simply need to know if they can afford next year's rent. The 2.7% figure for 2026 is neither catastrophe nor windfall—it's the arithmetic of a system trying to honor promises made decades ago while grappling with an economy that never stands still. What gets lost in these percentage-point debates is that behind every calculation sits a person who paid into this program their entire working life, and who now measures security not in policy abstracts but in whether the check covers the bills. The COLA matters because it has to. For too many people, there's nothing else - Disabled World (DW).
Author Credentials: Ian is the founder and Editor-in-Chief of Disabled World, a leading resource for news and information on disability issues. With a global perspective shaped by years of travel and lived experience, Ian is a committed proponent of the Social Model of Disability-a transformative framework developed by disabled activists in the 1970s that emphasizes dismantling societal barriers rather than focusing solely on individual impairments. His work reflects a deep commitment to disability rights, accessibility, and social inclusion. To learn more about Ian's background, expertise, and accomplishments, visit his full biography.