Number of Farms Worldwide Likely to Halve by Year 2100

Author: University of Colorado at Boulder
Published: 16 May 2023 - Updated: 4 Nov 2026
Publication Details: Peer-Reviewed | Research, Study, Analysis

Table of Contents:
Synopsis - Definition - Overview - FAQs - Insights, Updates - Related Content

Synopsis

This research from the University of Colorado Boulder, published in the peer reviewed journal Nature Sustainability, used UN Food and Agriculture Organization data from more than 180 countries to reconstruct farm numbers since 1969 and project them to 2100. It estimates that the number of farms worldwide will fall from 616 million in 2020 to 272 million by the end of the century as average farm size doubles, with consolidation spreading across Asia, the Middle East, North Africa, Oceania and Latin America by about 2050 and sub-Saharan Africa later. The trend matters for food security, biodiversity, rural communities and farm workers, including people with disabilities who live in rural areas.*

At a Glance

• 1 - The U.S. had 200,000 fewer farms in 2022 than in 2007.
• 2 - Larger farms tend to have less biodiversity and more single-crop fields than small farms.
• 3 - Suicide rates in U.S. agriculture are among the highest of any occupation, the researchers note.
• 4 - The world's smallest farms use 25 percent of agricultural land but grow about one-third of its food.

Topic Definition

Farm Consolidation

Farm consolidation is the long-term trend toward fewer and larger farms, as smaller holdings are bought, merged or abandoned and land is farmed by a smaller number of operators. It is usually driven by economic growth, mechanization and migration from rural areas to cities, and it can raise labor productivity while reducing crop diversity, rural employment and the number of people who hold farming knowledge.

Overview

"Likely Decline in the Number of Farms Globally by the Middle of the Century" - Nature Sustainability.

New University of Colorado Boulder research shows the number of farms globally will shrink in half as the size of the average existing farms doubles by the end of the 21st century, posing significant risks to the world's food systems.

Published in the journal Nature Sustainability, the study is the first to track the number and size of farms year-over-year, from the 1960s and projecting through 2100.

The study shows that even rural, farm-dependent communities in Africa and Asia will experience a drop in the number of operating farms.

"We see a turning point from widespread farm creation to widespread consolidation on a global level, and that's the future trajectory that humanity is currently on," said Zia Mehrabi, assistant professor of environmental studies at CU Boulder. "The size of the farm and the number of farms that exist are associated with key environmental and social outcomes."

To evaluate the global state of farming, Mehrabi used data from the UN Food and Agriculture Organization on agricultural area, GDP per capita and rural population size of more than 180 countries to first reconstruct the evolution of farm numbers from 1969-2013 and then to project those numbers through 2100.

His analysis found that the number of farms around the world would drop from 616 million in 2020 to 272 million in 2100. A key reason: As a country's economy grows, more people migrate to urban areas, leaving fewer people in rural areas to tend the land.

Reap What You Sow

A decline in the number of farms and an increase in farm size has been happening in the United States and Western Europe for decades. The most recent data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture indicates there were 200,000 fewer farms in 2022 than in 2007.

Mehrabi's analysis found that a turning point from farm creation to widespread consolidation will begin to occur as early as 2050 in communities across Asia, the Middle East, North Africa, Oceania, Latin America and the Caribbean. Sub-Saharan Africa will follow the same course later in the century, the research found.

It also shows that even if the total amount of farmland doesn't change across the globe in coming years, fewer people will own and farm what land there is available. The trend could threaten biodiversity in a time where biodiversity conservation is top of mind.

"Larger farms typically have less biodiversity and more monocultures," Mehrabi said. "Smaller farms typically have more biodiversity and crop diversity, which makes them more resilient to pest outbreaks and climate shocks."

And it's not just biodiversity: Food supply is also at risk. Mehrabi's previous research shows the world's smallest farms make up just 25% of the world's agricultural land but harvest one-third of the world's food.

Moreover, fewer farms mean fewer farmers who may carry with them valuable Indigenous knowledge dating back centuries. As farms consolidate, that knowledge is replaced by new technology and mechanization.

Building a Diverse Food Portfolio

Just as a diverse investment portfolio performs better than one that is not diversified, having diversity in the world's food source portfolio is beneficial in the long run, said Mehrabi.

"If you're investing in today's food systems with around 600 million farms in the world, your portfolio is pretty diverse," Mehrabi said. "If there's damage to one farm, it's likely the impact to your portfolio will be averaged out with the success of another. But if you decrease the number of farms and increase their size, the effect of that shock on your portfolio is going to increase. You're carrying more risk."

There are also upsides to the shift in corporate farm ownership: The paper points out that consolidation in farming can lead to improved labor productivity and economic growth with a larger workforce in non-farm employment and improved management systems.

One of the biggest benefits of farm consolidation, Mehrabi said, is improved economic opportunity for people, and the ability to choose their own career path within or outside of the agricultural sector.

But those future farm workers may need more support as suicide rates in the agriculture industry are among the highest rates by occupation in the U.S.

"Currently, we have around 600 million farms feeding the world, and they're carrying 8 billion people on their shoulders," Mehrabi said. "By the end of the century, we'll likely have half the number of farmers feeding even more people. We really need to think about how we can have the education and support systems in place to support those farmers."

By raising awareness of global agricultural trends, Mehrabi hopes his analysis will lead to policies that ensure biodiversity conservation, maintain climate resilience, preserve Indigenous knowledge and provide incentives to improve the rural economy in countries around the world.

Frequently Asked Questions

NOTE: Researched FAQs by Disabled World (DW)

Why are small farms important for food security?

Small farms produce a large share of the world's food relative to the land they use, and their variety of crops helps protect food supplies from pests and climate shocks.

What causes farm consolidation?

Economic growth, mechanization, rising land costs and people moving from rural areas to cities all encourage fewer, larger farms.

How does farm size affect biodiversity?

Small, diverse farms with hedgerows and mixed crops usually support more species than large farms growing a single crop.

What support exists for farmers with disabilities?

In the United States, the AgrAbility program helps farmers and ranchers with disabilities stay in agriculture through assessments, adaptive equipment advice and training.

Why are suicide rates high among farmers?

Financial pressure, isolation, long hours, weather uncertainty and limited access to mental health care contribute to higher risk.

What is the UN Food and Agriculture Organization?

It is a UN agency that leads international efforts to defeat hunger, improve nutrition and collect global data on farming and food.

Will fewer farms mean less food?

Not necessarily, since larger farms can be very productive, but fewer farms can make the food system less diverse and more vulnerable to shocks.

Can farming be adapted for people with physical disabilities?

Yes. Lifts, hand controls, modified tools, raised beds and automation can help people with disabilities continue farming safely.

Insights, Analysis, and Developments

Editorial Note: Fewer, bigger farms can bring higher productivity and new jobs outside agriculture, but they also concentrate risk: a pest, drought or price shock on large single-crop farms can hit the food supply harder than the same event spread across many small ones. Losing small farms also means losing local and Indigenous knowledge and the biodiversity that diverse plots support. Planning for this shift, with support for farmers' health and livelihoods, matters for rural communities, where farm injuries, isolation and limited services already affect many people with disabilities and older farmers.*

Attribution/Source(s): This peer-reviewed publication was selected for publishing by the editors of Disabled World (DW) due to its relevance to the disability community. Originally issued as a press release by University of Colorado at Boulder and published on 16 May 2023. Last updated on 4 Nov 2026. This content may have been edited for style, clarity, or brevity.

* Editorial additions by Ian C. Langtree.